Author Archives: Jay

It’s January 3rd 2021, how is Orange County Florida doing with Covid-19?

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Seven day averages of new cases and new deaths in Orange County FL.

Cases
The 7-day average of new cases (848 per day) has reached levels only seen at the peak of the summer surge, bringing us firmly into “2nd wave” territory. There were dips in reported cases around the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays as many testing sites were closed, but it is clear that these holidays drove a continuing increase in infections.

Deaths
The number of deaths per day are going up, but as physicians have learned better ways to treat patients we are not yet having as many deaths as in the summer peak. (Also, deaths lag infections by several weeks, so I expect these numbers to increase.)  
In November, Orange County Florida had an average of 2.87 covid-19 deaths per day (86 total deaths). In December 2020, the average had risen to 3.35 deaths per day (104 total deaths).   This is still 50% of the deaths reported in the summer peak (June 22nd 2020 to July 22nd, 2020) which had 6.97 average deaths per day (223 total deaths).

In the state of Florida overall, the total number of people hospitalized for covid-19 is slightly over 6,000 (but rising), while the summer peaked at almost 10,000. The deaths per day is also currently lower than the summer peak.

Hospitalization and Death trends for the entire state of Florida. (Hospitalization data was not reported by the Florida DOH until July 10th.)

Percent Positivity
The percent positivity metric has been above 6.55% in 14 of the last 14 days, indicating that community spread is not under control.

How many people have been vaccinated

The Florida department of health reports that as of January 3rd 2020,   19,356 Orange County residents have received their first dose (out of two) of a COVID-19 Vaccine.  

This is 1.3 % of the population (primarily front line healthcare workers and residents of long term care facilities) who have begun the vaccination process.   [Note that full protection is not achieved until two weeks after the second dose, but some protection begins to appear within 10 days of the first dose.]

How many people have been infected

The US Census bureau estimated that Orange County Florida has a population of 1,393,452 people (July 1st, 2019).     The Florida Department of health reports today that   78,512 cases of COVID-19 (confirmed by either a positive PCR or Antigen test result) have occurred in Orange County so far.     That means at least 5.6 percent ( 78512/ 1393452 = .05634352 ) of the population has been infected. The actual percentage is likely to be much higher as many asymptomatic cases may never be detected.

How many people have been hospitalized or died

Of those confirmed infected, 1,953 or   2.5 percent ( 1953 / 78512   =   .02487517) have been hospitalized, and 750 have died.   The death toll is currently 0.96 percent of all detected cases ( 750 / 78512 = 0.00955267).

Florida average percentages for hospitalizations and deaths are 4.7% and 1.6% so Orange County has done better than the rest of the state of Florida for hospitalizations and mortality so far.

Median Age of the infected

Last month the median age of those infected was 35, while 42 was the median age over the last 7 days.   [The median age of Florida residents is 42.2 ] While infections had trended towards the younger demographics in Sep/Oct/Nov, it appears that the age profile of those infected is now matching that of the overall population.

Orange County Schools
Orange county schools closed for winter break after December 18th. On November 27th they had 1,154 confirmed cases, while they had 2,096 on December 18th, a gain of 942 cases.   School will resume on January 4th.   The number of cases in the K-12 schools has reflected community spread primarily outside of the schools, which did not appear to be a major driver of new infections.

Predictions for January:
Case numbers have risen quickly in December. I expect them to continue to rise, especially in the next 7 days after New Year’s eve festivities. I expect the numbers for hospitalizations and deaths to increase in January.

I do not anticipate enough vaccinations to occur in January to have a significant impact on the number of new cases, which I expect to stay at or above current levels. However, I hope to see deaths begin to drop near the end of February as the most vulnerable population (those over 65) are prioritized for vaccinations.

[Charts/Numbers used can be found in this open document spreadsheet:   orange_county_florida.ods ]
 

2017 Kia Optima Plug In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Missing maps SD card fix

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When we bought a used Kia Optima PHEV (off lease) it was missing the Maps SD card that plugs into the infotainment unit, so the onboard maps & navigation did not work. Given that every phone now comes with multiple GPS navigation & mapping options, this wasn’t a deal-breaker, but I was worried that this would be a very expensive dealer only purchase if we ever wanted to get it working.

I was very pleasantly surprised to find out that Kia will sell and ship you an SD card with updated map data and infotainment software for only $25!
The magic website is easy to find: https://update.kia.com/

I was even happier to find out that if I didn’t want to pay the $25 and wait for shipping, I could buy my own 32 GB Class 10 SDHC UHS-1 card (For $10), download their (Windows or Mac only) software and use it to write the data out to the card myself at home!

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1-3 year old Electric Vehicle and Plug in Hybrid EV shopping impressions in 2020

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Today we went shopping (at OffLeaseOnly Orlando) for an new commuter vehicle for Val (replacing her 2015 Nissan Leaf, which will become my vehicle.)   We wanted an EV with significantly more range than the Leaf (which is around 80 miles now), or a Plug in Hybrid that could do most if not all of Val’s 20 mile commute on battery power, but use gas for longer trips.   I was most focused on the Chevy Bolt EV or Chevy Volt Plug in Hybrid, of which OffLeaseOnly had multiple units in stock, but we were lucky enough that they also had several other options to try out on the 1-3 year old used “off lease” market. [Because the uncomfortable drivers seats of the Bolt & Volt knocked them out of the running.]

All of the plug in hybrids we drove had almost no charge in their batteries when we took them off the lot for a test drive, so we got to hear/experience their gas engines relatively quickly. The Bolt & Ioniq EVs had enough charge for a test drive, but were at the lower (20-40%) end of their capacity. (Off Lease Only had 4 EV chargers on their lot that we could use to test the J1772 Level 2 charging port, or top up any EV we decided to buy while we did paperwork.)

Presented below are brief notes about the vehicles we test drove (rank ordered by how likely we were to buy them).

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Upgrading Ring Video Doorbell (gen1) to Ring Video Doorbell (Gen2)

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Back in 2015 I bought a 1st gen Ring Video Doorbell. In 2018 Ring replaced it under warranty after it stopped responding. Two years later, I started having issues with the internal battery not staying charged, even though I had it hard wired with power from an AC doorbell transformer. This resulted in me having to take it off the wall to recharge via the USB plug periodically.   Ring offered to give me a 35% off code to replace it, making the Gen2 ring video doorbell a 65$ purchase, so I decided to upgrade. [Moving my Gen1 video doorbell elsewhere where it will activate less frequently and hopefully not need manual recharging as much.]

Ring’s Website currently has a nice description of the difference between the Gen1 and Gen2 Video Doorbell units.

The big gain is in image quality. The Gen2 camera is noticeably better, both with a higher resolution and with better low light performance. The field of view in the Gen2 unit is reduced (155 horizontal and 90 vertical, vs 180 horizontal and 140 vertical for the Gen 1 unit) and while I can tell the difference in visible area, I don’t feel like I’m losing any useful coverage. The difference between the 1080P (Gen2) and 720P (Gen1) is a clear and welcome improvement. In addition to the higher resolution, I feel that the lens is better and produces a sharper image. (Click on the images below to get full sized views as shown in the phone app.)

Gen2 – Day

Gen1 – Day

The improvement at night is even more striking.

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USPS Click-n-Ship account error: “Sorry, your transaction has been declined. Your transaction cannot be processed at this time with this payment type”

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I’ve been having an issue with the USPS Click & Ship account where it would not allow me to pay for shipping labels online. Everything would work fine up until I tried to pay, and then it would give me the “Sorry, your transaction has been declined. Your transaction cannot be processed at this time with this payment type” error message. It only took USPS a week to resolve it.
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My Glowforge Glass Lid Detached!

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Remember how the handle on the front of my Glowforge’s glass lid fell off back in 2019? Well today when I went to lift the lid, the entire glass lid was detached from the back (hinges!).   I am NOT impressed with the adhesive that Glowforge used on this unit.

Glass lid detached from the hindges

Last time I was able to simply epoxy the handle back into place. I’m hopeful I can do the same thing for the back of the lid, but unfortunately this time it will be very important that I be able to get the lid as close to possible to the original position, as the calibration of the under-lid camera may be negatively impacted by any offsets.     On the plus side, since my last issue, Glowforge has introduced a “beta” Calibrate Camera feature which should hopefully give me the ability to re-calibrate the under-lid (wide angle) camera “in the field”.

Somebody on the Glowforge community forums suggested that they had used E6000 (a flexible adhesive) to repair their lid, so I decided to give that a shot. I made this choice based mostly on the fact that E6000 is a single part adhesive that comes in a squeeze tube with a nice nozzle for dispensing. Getting a good bead between the lid and the hinge mechanism was going to be a little tricky because the lid is still attached to the main unit by a flexible circuit board/wire and it wasn’t immediately clear how to detach the connector. (I was worried that getting 2-part epoxy between the two of them without spilling any would be difficult. In retrospect, I should have ordered one of those “mix in the nozzle” dispensers for the epoxy….).

So, I laid down a few beads of E6000 and then clamped the lid down onto the hinges for 48 hours.

Rocks holding the lid down

Clamping force provided by gravity.

When I opened the lid, the E6000 mostly held, but there was a noticeable “glue stretching” sound, and the right hand side of the lid (nearest the flexible wire, and hardest to get the nozzle under) detached.   The E6000 was holding the lid on the hinge in an upright orientation, but I didn’t want to risk closing and opening the lid more.

So I ended up using JB Weld Clear 2 part 5 minute epoxy all along the edge of the lid and the hinge mechanism (using a toothpick to push it down in the gap on the right hand side) and then clamping the lid to the hinge in an upright position   (using a real clamp this time) for another 24 hours.

The Epoxy is currently holding the lid onto the hinge very solidly. I’d feel better if I’d used epoxy between the entire lid and hinge mechanism, instead of just the edge and what I could force down the crack on the right hand side, so I’ll be gentle with the lid (but then again, I’ve been gentle with it ever since the handle fell off….)

I’m hopeful the bond will remain at least as permanent as my repair on the handle has so far.

Update: My laser tube gave up the ghost, and GlowForge exchanged my (well out of warranty) unit for a Refurbished one for $500.   (Yes, they were informed about my lid repair activities with Epoxy and approved the exchange anyways…..)

It’s November 27th, 2020, how is Orange County Florida doing with COVID-19?

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The rate of   new cases had a slight rise in September, and continues to be on a slight upward trend in October. This upward trend accelerated in November. Orange County is averaging 469 confirmed new cases per day over the last two weeks (compared to 224 in the same period in October). While not quite as bad as the summer peak of 600-800 per day in July, these numbers are   going in the wrong direction.

We had 96 people die from Covid-19 in Orange County in the last month (slightly better than the 105 in the prior month) and the total death count is at 642.
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Technical, Hardware, Electronics & Surplus suppliers with fast shipping times to Florida

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Here is a list of suppliers located close to or in Florida, for fast shipping times:

  • Industrial Safety Products – Miami FL – Personal Protective Equipment.
  • MPJA.com – West Palm Beach FL – Surplus & Closeout electronics, motors, chemicals & tools.
  • Raka.com – Epoxy Resins, Fiberglass and other composite supplies.
  • McMaster Carr – fast shipping to just about anywhere, but PHEW those prices….
  • MonsterBolts – (I haven’t tried them yet, but the next time I need some fasteners I’m going to check to see if they are cheaper than McMaster…..)

Other useful suppliers located farther away:

EGO 7.5AH Battery degradation over time (3 year mark)

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I log how much power it takes to charge my Ego batteries after I use them. I’m using this as a stand-in for how much capacity they retain over time. You should know that I have a large lawn (in Florida) and cycle these batteries at least once a week (more in the summer) so these batteries are getting more of a workout than if you had a small city lot that you could mow a few times before charging the battery.

I have two 7.5 AH batteries (one bought before the other). They took 410 watt hours to recharge when new.   My older battery has three years of use, and has 63% of it’s original capacity (260 w/h).     The drop from year 2 to year 3 was from 75->63% [The batteries have a 3 year warranty, so the first battery is now out of warranty.]

My second battery appears to be following the same general trajectory, although it’s capacity is just slightly less than the first battery (at the same years in service mark).

For the bar chart above I averaged the capacity of all measurements in a particular year, but if you graph all measurements you can see that they are generally decreasing over time (although the batteries do sometimes go “up” in capacity, possibly due to ambient temperatures).   The following graph is for my 2nd 7.5AH battery (manufacture date of 2018).

Judging the balance of cells within a battery based upon ending charge profile

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My S-10 EV conversion has a battery pack made up of Nissan Leaf modules. I am using a mini-bms system which has a per-cell alarm, but does not report per-cell voltages and also does not do a great job keeping the cells balanced.   To check individual cell voltages, or manually balance cells, I need to pull a few pins and lift up the tilt bed on the back of the truck.   But it is possible to determine when cells in the battery are no longer well balanced based upon the power draw when the ending voltage is reached. You can see this most easily by looking at the charge profile graphs (provided by my JuiceBox EVSE).

When the cells are not balanced, some cells are at a lower SOC than others when the ending voltage is reached, which results in the entire pack drawing more power (in this case, charging ended when the max voltage cutoff was reached, but the pack was still drawing 3,000 watts.

After balancing the cells, the normal charging profile looks like this:

As you can see, the amp/power draw slowly tapers off as the max voltage is approached, and the pack is drawing less than 1,000 watts when the cells are balanced.

I use these end-of-charge graphs to determine when it is time to pop the back of the truck and manually check/balance individual cells. [I still have the mini-bms units to automatically stop the charger if any cells voltage goes too high, or alarm if any cells voltage goes too low.]