It’s October 28th, 2020, how is Orange County Florida doing with COVID-19?

The rate of decline in new cases had grown sluggish at the end of August, plateaued and then had a slight rise in September, and continues to be on a slight upward trend in October. Orange County is averaging 224 confirmed new cases per day over the last two weeks (compared to 147 in the same period in September). Compared to an average of 14 new cases per day in the first two weeks of April, the number of people infected each day is 16 times higher than in April.

We had 105 people die from Covid-19 in Orange County in the last month (slightly worse than the 79 in the prior month) and the total death count is at 549. Continue reading →

It’s August 27th, 2020, how is Orange County Florida doing with COVID-19?

The number of new cases per day has seen steady decreases since late July, possibly due to a mandatory mask ordinance.   The rate of decline has grown sluggish for the last two weeks and the number of daily cases is still ten times that recorded in April. Orange County is averaging 191 confirmed new cases per day over the last two weeks, compared to an average of 14 new cases per day in the first two weeks of April.

Deaths are lagging new cases by about 3 weeks and as the number of new cases have declined, the rate of deaths has also declined, averaging only 3 per day in the last two weeks.   Unfortunately, the total number of deaths in Orange County has gone from 179 on July 27th to 369 today (adding 190 deaths), a doubling of total deaths in the last month.

If the new deaths curve is actually lagging the new cases curve by 3 weeks, and also plateaus at the current levels, we will have a sustained period of 5-8 deaths per day for the next month, doubling the total number of deaths to date in the next month. [My unfortunately correct prediction from last month.]

A Positive Sign
A positive sign is that the percent positivity rate on tests has hovered just above the 5% goal (and has actually been below 5% for 4 of the last 14 days), indicating that community spread is almost at a manageable level.

How many people have been infected

The US Census bureau estimated that Orange County Florida has a population of 1,393,452 people (July 1st, 2019).     The Florida Department of health reports today that 35,245 cases of COVID-19 (confirmed by either a positive PCR or Antigen test result) have occurred in Orange County so far.     That means at least 2.5 percent (35245/1393452   =.02529330) of the population has been infected.

The actual number is likely to be higher, as many infections are asymptomatic, or not confirmed with a lab test.   Robert Redfield, the director of the CDC estimates that the number of people actually infected may be up to 10 times higher than confirmed with lab tests, putting an upper bound of 25% of the population of Orange County as already having been infected.

How many people have been hospitalized or died

Of those confirmed infected, 1,089 or 3 percent ( 1089 / 35245 = .0309) have been hospitalized, and 369 have died.   The death toll is currently 1 percent of all detected cases (369 / 35245 = 0.0104695701 ).

In the last month (July 27th to August 28th) the number of dead has doubled (from 179 to 369).

Florida average percentages for hospitalizations and deaths are 6.2% and 1.8% so Orange County has fared better than the rest of the state of Florida for hospitalizations and mortality so far.

Median Age is holding steady

Last month the median age of those infected was 42 , and this has held relatively steady, as 37 was the median age over the last 7 days.   [The median age of Florida residents is 42.2 ]

However, Orange County schools have re-opened on Friday Aug 21st, with at least 30% of the students opting for in-person schooling. I would not be surprised to see a dip in the median age as school age children begin to be infected at school. Fortunately, young children vary rarely face serious consequences from infection, but they may drive an uptick in community spread leading to deaths in older adults.

[Charts/Numbers used can be found in this open document spreadsheet: orange_county_florida ]

It’s July 28th, 2020, how is Orange County Florida doing with COVID-19?

The number of new cases per day has surged up, but appears to have plateaued at an average of 606 new cases a day for the last month. Deaths appear to lag new cases by about 3 weeks and have reached a rate of 7-8 per day.

If the new deaths curve is actually lagging the new cases curve by 3 weeks, and also plateaus at the current levels, we will have a sustained period of 5-8 deaths per day for the next month, doubling the total number of deaths to date in the next month.

How many people have been infected

The US Census bureau estimated that Orange County Florida has a population of 1,393,452 people (July 1st, 2019).     The Florida Department of health reports today that 27,820 cases of COVID-19 (confirmed by either a positive PCR or Antigen test result) have occurred in Orange County so far.     That means at least 2 percent (27820/1393452   = 0.019964) of the population has been infected.

The actual number is likely to be higher, as many infections are asymptomatic, or not confirmed with a lab test.   Robert Redfield, the director of the CDC estimates that the number of people actually infected may be up to 10 times higher than confirmed with lab tests, putting an upper bound of 20% of the population of Orange County as already having been infected.

How many people have been hospitalized or died

Of those confirmed infected, 756 or 2.7 percent ( 756 / 27820 = 0.02717469 ) have been hospitalized, and 179 have died.   The death toll is currently 0.64 percent of all detected cases (179 / 27820= 0.00643421).

In the last month (June 27th to July 27th) the number of dead has tripled (from 56 to 179).

Median Age is Increasing

Florida average percentages for hospitalizations and deaths are 5.6% and 1.38% so Orange County has fared better than the rest of the state of Florida for hospitalizations and mortality so far.   This may be due to the fact that South Florida was hit hard first, giving Central Florida a stark warning and time to prepare.

Unfortunately, the median age of the infected is rising. The first big surge of cases detected in mid-June (after bars reopened) were primarily very young individuals, with a median age of 22 for new cases. The current median age is 42, a generation older. As more older individuals are infected the percentages for hospitalizations and deaths may increase in Orange County to match the averages seen in the rest of Florida.

[Charts/Numbers used can be found in this open document spreadsheet: orange_county_florida.ods ]